LONDON – The number of improvised explosive device (IED) attacks against US and Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) rose by 550 percent after the formation of a Sunni tribal resistance movement in June, according to a new report from Conflict Monitor by business information provider IHS Markit (Nasdaq: INFO).

Conflict Monitor compared the number of IED attacks conducted against US-backed forces in Syria’s Raqqa and Hasaka provinces in the three months before and after the June 2 formation of a Sunni Arab tribal resistance movement in eastern Syria. It recorded 12 IED attacks in the three months prior to the formation of the movement, including March to May, compared with 78 in the three months following it, including June to August.

The recorded IED attacks predominantly took the form of roadside IEDs targeting SDF and US patrols and were concentrated in urban areas as well as along transport arteries.

Tribal resistance and Islamic State sleeper cells’ motives converge

“The recorded increase in attacks is most likely the result of a structured campaign by the tribal resistance movement,” said Columb Strack , principal Middle East analyst at IHS Markit. “The increased number of attacks, and the locations in which attacks were conducted, appears to indicate concerted, organized efforts by these groups to pressure the US into withdrawing from Syria.”

The tribal movement was formed on June 2, 2018 as the ‘Syrian tribes against foreign intervention and the American presence on Syrian soil’. As its name suggests, its aim is the removal of US troops and its Kurdish proxies in the Syrian Democratic Forces.

Some of the IED attacks recorded in Raqqa and Hasaka are likely to have been carried out by Islamic State sleeper cells, and the proportion of attacks conducted by militants affiliated with the tribal resistance movement is unclear, the IHS Markit report says.

“There is likely to be overlap in motivation and individuals among those carrying out attacks against the US and SDF on behalf of the Islamic State and the tribal resistance movement,” Strack said.

For instance, in September, the SDF launched offensives to oust the Islamic State from the towns of Baghouz Fawqani and Hajin in Deir al-Zour. Reports emerged of Sunni Arab SDF fighters refusing to participate in these offensives due to an unwillingness to fight in their home towns.

A Sunni Arab insurgency in Hasaka, Raqqa, and Deir al-Zour provinces that successfully conducts attacks against US and Kurdish forces will make it more difficult for the SDF to maintain control of the eastern bank of the Euphrates, which is predominantly populated by Sunni Arab tribes.

“The involvement of the IRGC-affiliated militia Liwa al-Baqir in the formation of the Sunni Arab tribal resistance movement against the US presence in Syria suggests financial and material support from Iran,” Strack said.

####

About IHS Markit ( www.ihsmarkit.com )

IHS Markit (Nasdaq: INFO) is a world leader in critical information, analytics and solutions for the major industries and markets that drive economies worldwide. The company delivers next-generation information, analytics and solutions to customers in business, finance and government, improving their operational efficiency and providing deep insights that lead to well-informed, confident decisions. IHS Markit has more than 50,000 business and government customers, including 80 percent of the Fortune Global 500 and the world’s leading financial institutions. Headquartered in London, IHS Markit is committed to sustainable, profitable growth.

IHS Markit is a registered trademark of IHS Markit Ltd. and/or its affiliates. All other company and product names may be trademarks of their respective owners © 2018 IHS Markit Ltd. All rights reserved.

About Conflict Monitor ( Conflict Monitor )

Conflict Monitor by IHS Markit is an open-source intelligence collection and analysis service, which delivers critical data-driven insight into the conflicts in Iraq and Syria, geospatial tools, and in-depth analysis by leading security experts.